According to Statistics Canada, the nation’s population, currently estimated at 41 million in 2024, could surge to between 47.1 million and 87.2 million by 2073. The medium-growth scenario forecasts a population of approximately 62.8 million by that year.
Key Driver of Growth: Migration
Across all scenarios, migration is projected to be the primary catalyst for population growth, continuing a trend seen since the early 1990s. In contrast, natural increase (births minus deaths) will play a minor role due to anticipated higher death rates from an aging population and persistently low fertility rates, a trend common in many developed nations.
Aging Population Dynamics
The proportion of Canadians aged 85 and older is expected to triple by 2073. Currently, those aged 65 and older comprise 18.9% of the population. This percentage is projected to rise to between 21.9% and 32.3%, depending on the aging scenario. The significant rise in the elderly population will be most noticeable from 2031 to 2050, as the baby-boomer generation enters the 85-plus age group, increasing demands for healthcare and services.
Children and Youth Proportion Decline
The percentage of children (ages 0-14) in Canada has significantly decreased since its peak of 34.0% in 1962. In 2023, this group makes up 15.4% of the population. This share is expected to decline further in most projection scenarios, except for the slow-aging and high-growth scenarios.
Average Age Increase
The average age of Canadians is projected to rise from 41.6 years in 2023 to between 42.6 and 50.1 years by 2073, depending on the aging scenario.
Provincial and Territorial Trends
Population distribution trends indicate that the relative weight of the population in eastern provinces (east of Ontario) will continue to decline. Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, and Quebec are expected to see their share of the national population decrease by 2048 in most scenarios. Conversely, provinces like Saskatchewan, Alberta, and British Columbia are projected to see demographic growth.
Ontario and Quebec are anticipated to remain the most populous provinces over the next 25 years. However, population growth rates will vary significantly across provinces and territories, with some, such as Newfoundland and Labrador and the Northwest Territories, potentially seeing a population decrease under low-growth scenarios.
Implications of Population Aging
As the population ages, the proportion of those aged 65 and older will rise in all provinces and territories, leading to increased demands on healthcare and elder services. The segment of those aged 85 and older will grow particularly rapidly across the country, emphasizing the need for enhanced support systems for the elderly.
These projections underscore the need for strategic planning in immigration, healthcare, and infrastructure to accommodate the expected demographic shifts.