Canada is bracing for a hotter-than-average summer with below-average precipitation in central regions, officials announced on Tuesday. This forecast offers little respite from ongoing drought conditions and raises concerns about another severe wildfire season.
“For summer 2024, we expect above-average temperatures throughout most of country. These conditions are likely to result in other severe weather events,” Environment Canada stated.
On Tuesday, government maps indicated that the likelihood of a hot summer reaches nearly 100 percent in areas east of the Ontario-Manitoba border. In contrast, the probability drops to as low as 50 percent in Alberta.
In 2023, Canada faced its worst wildfire season on record, with over 6,600 fires scorching 15 million hectares, nearly seven times the annual average. The unusually warm winter and low snowfall, combined with widespread drought, led the government to warn in April that 2024 could also be a “catastrophic” year for wildfires.
Spring saw significant out-of-control forest fires in British Columbia and Alberta, prompting mass evacuations. Fortunately, cooler weather in late May and early June helped reduce fire activity, while rain across the prairies improved drought conditions. Despite this, 45% of Canada remains classified as abnormally dry, according to Agriculture Canada.
Jennifer Smith, a meteorologist with the Meteorological Service of Canada, noted that weather models indicate above-average temperatures for most of Canada over the next three months, excluding the coast of British Columbia. These models also predict less rainfall than usual in central Canada, though predictions for other regions are less certain.
“Canadians need to be ready for a warmer summer that could bring drier conditions across the country,” Smith stated during a media briefing, emphasizing the increased risk of wildfires and smoke.
While the 2024 fire season has been relatively quiet so far, with 511,000 hectares burned to date compared to 4.7 million hectares at the same point last year, wildfire activity typically peaks in July and August, according to the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre.
In response to last year’s feedback, the federal Environment Ministry is rolling out a new air quality advisory system and daily smoke forecast maps to better inform Canadians about the health risks from wildfire smoke. These measures aim to provide timely and accurate information to help citizens protect themselves during wildfire events.