Newly released research from the Northern Tornadoes Project (NTP) at Western University has revealed a surprising shift in Canada’s tornado activity, positioning Ontario as the new tornado hotspot, surpassing the traditionally tornado-prone Prairies.
David Sills, the executive director of NTP, highlighted that although southern Saskatchewan has long been considered the “big bull’s eye in Canada for tornado activity,” recent data suggests otherwise. “Since we started the project, the number of tornadoes in Saskatchewan has not been nearly as much as we thought,” Sills told CP24.com.
A Changing Tornado Landscape
Sills explained that the climatology of tornadoes is examined over 30-year periods. Between 1980 and 2009, Saskatchewan led Canada with an average of 17.4 tornadoes annually. However, a revised study covering the period from 1991 to 2020 revealed that Ontario now leads with an average of 18.3 tornadoes per year. In 2023 alone, Ontario recorded 30 tornadoes over land and an additional nine over water, while Alberta followed with 19 tornadoes, 10 of which occurred during a single outbreak on June 14.
Since its inception in 2017, the NTP has documented over 700 tornadoes across Canada. Initially, the project’s goal was to uncover unreported tornadoes in remote areas like northern Ontario and Quebec. The success of this initiative led to nationwide documentation by 2019. “Basically anything that was detected as a tornado or just wind damage, we would investigate and add to our data set,” Sills said.
Eastern Canada’s Rising Tornado Activity
Sills noted a worrying trend: tornadoes are becoming less frequent in traditional “tornado alley” regions, a pattern also observed in the United States. “More tornadoes are happening in the eastern part of the country, which is also the more populated part. So that’s not a good trend,” he stated. He emphasized the influence of climate change, droughts, and forest fires on tornado development.
The NTP’s efforts have significantly increased the number of documented tornadoes in Canada, from an average of 60 per year before the project started to about 100 annually now. “We’re trying to get closer to reality, right? What’s really happening, which we didn’t know before,” Sills added.
The Science of Tornado Formation
CTV weather specialist Jess Smith explained that tornado formation requires specific atmospheric conditions: warm moist air near the ground, cooler dry air higher up, and wind shear, a variation in wind speed and direction. “With more heat wave events happening earlier and earlier into the summer season and overall warmer summers, it’s reasonable to expect more thunderstorms that can produce tornadoes and tornadic activity,” she told CP24.com.
Tornadoes in Canada: An Overview
Canada experiences a significant number of tornadoes annually, with the majority occurring in the Prairies and Ontario. These powerful storms can cause extensive damage to infrastructure, agriculture, and natural landscapes. The increasing frequency and intensity of tornadoes, particularly in more populated eastern regions, underscore the need for ongoing research and preparedness efforts.
Heat waves and tornadoes are interconnected, as extended periods of high temperatures can lead to more severe thunderstorms. These storms, in turn, create the ideal conditions for tornado formation, especially when combined with factors like wind shear and atmospheric instability. The rising incidence of heat waves due to climate change is likely to contribute to increased tornado activity in the future.
Adapting to Changing Climatic Conditions
The findings from the Northern Tornadoes Project highlight a significant shift in Canada’s tornado activity, with Ontario emerging as the new hotspot. This change underscores the importance of continued research and preparedness in the face of evolving climatic conditions. As we adapt to these changes, understanding the dynamics of tornado formation and the influence of broader environmental factors will be crucial in mitigating risks and protecting communities.